Coronavirus to have "longer & larger" impact on US imports - just-style.com

US ports are expected to handle 10.23m TEU in the first half of 2020, down 2.8% on last year

The coronavirus outbreak is expected to have a larger and longer-lasting impact on imports at major US retail container ports than previously believed, as factory shutdowns and travel restrictions in China continue to affect production.

"There are still a lot of unknowns to fully determine the impact of the coronavirus on the supply chain," explains Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF). "As factories in China continue to come back online, products are now flowing again. But there are still issues affecting cargo movement, including the availability of truck drivers to move cargo to Chinese ports. Retailers are working with both their suppliers and transportation providers to find paths forward to minimise disruption."

The latest Global Port Tracker report released by the NRF and Hackett Associates shows US ports handled 1.82m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in January, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 5.7% from December but down 3.8% from unusually high numbers a year ago related to US tariffs on goods from China. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.

February was estimated at 1.42m TEU, slightly above the 1.41m TEU expected a month ago but down 12.6% from last year and significantly lower than the 1.54m TEU forecast before the coronavirus began to have an effect on imports. March is forecast at 1.32m TEU, down 18.3% from last year and less than the 1.46m TEU expected last month or the 1.7m TEU forecast before the virus.

April, which had not previously been expected to be affected, is now forecast at 1.68m TEU, down 3.5% from last year and lower than the 1.82m TEU forecast last month.

While the coronavirus makes forecasting difficult, the report suggests imports will jump to 2.02m TEU in May, a 9.3% increase year-over-year, on the assumption that Chinese factories will have resumed most production by then and will be trying to make up for lower volume earlier.

Looking further ahead, June is forecast at 1.97m TEU, up 9.6% year-over-year, while July is estimated at 2.03m TEU, up 3.3% year-over-year.

Imports during 2019 totalled 21.6m TEU, a 0.8% decline from 2018 amid the ongoing trade war but still the second-highest year on record. The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 10.23m TEU, down 2.8% from the same period last year and below the 10.47m TEU forecast a month ago.

"Now that we are in the coronavirus environment, uncertainty has expanded exponentially," says Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. "Our projections are based on the optimistic view that by the end of March or early April some sort of normalcy will have returned to trade." 

This month's report comes as a separate NRF survey of members found 40% of respondents said they are seeing disruptions to their supply chains from the virus and that another 26% expect to see disruptions as the situation continues.

Click here for additional insight: Is coronavirus a threat to the clothing industry?

Let's block ads! (Why?)

"to have an impact" - Google News
March 10, 2020 at 09:46PM
https://ift.tt/2VZ8A6H

Coronavirus to have "longer & larger" impact on US imports - just-style.com
"to have an impact" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2OtZUAR
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update

Bagikan Berita Ini