EUROPE/USA. The US ban on traffic from Europe – which initially affected Schengen countries but has now been extended to the UK and Ireland – will result in a drop in traffic of over 5.5 million passengers during March and April. [This story has been updated from a previous version to include the extension of the ban to the UK and Ireland].
The figure is based on a comparison of traffic data across the two months conducted by Swiss research agency m1nd-set, which said a possible shutdown of international flights to and from Italy would see more than 18 million passengers lost at Europe’s top 20 destination airports.
Source (all charts): m1nd-set. Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge
The country most affected by the US travel ban in terms of passenger numbers will be the UK, which will see traffic fall by -8.7%, equating to more than 1.7 million passengers.
Germany will be next, with 890,000 less travellers and traffic down -5.4% compared to the same period in 2019. France will lose 657,000 passengers, down -5.8%, while traffic in the Netherlands will fall by just under 500,000 passengers, representing a -7.5% decline.
In percentage terms, Iceland will experience the largest decline with a -23.7% drop in traffic, or 128,000 passengers.
London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt and Amsterdam Schiphol will be the airports most affected by the travel ban, with traffic down -21.1% (1.275 million passengers), -10.7% (618,000), -11% (572,000), and -8.3%% (493,000) respectively.
M1nd-set has also calculated the potential impact on travel retail revenues based on an analysis of the number of duty free shoppers purchasing each specific category and the decline in passenger numbers.
Click to enlarge
On average, 19% of travellers from Europe purchase at duty free shops in the US, m1nd-set said, which over the March-April period this year will mean 665,000 less travellers from Europe shopping at US airports with the travel ban in place.
Confectionery and souvenirs & gifts will suffer the biggest impact, as 27% of European travellers purchase these categories at US airports. Some 25% purchase perfumes; 17% buy both alcohol and tobacco; 14% purchase fashion & accessories; 8% buy skincare products; and 6% purchase make-up.
M1nd-set Business 1ntelligence Service (B1S) Director Pablo Saez-Gil warned that a potential shutdown on international flights to and from Italy would impact travel retail revenues still further. “[It would] result in a fall in traffic of around -14% – more than 18 million passengers – over the next two months for the top 20 destination airports,” he said.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
“The main airports impacted outside Italy will be Paris Charles de Gaulle, which will see a decline of 443,000 passengers; Madrid, which will lose 417,000; and Barcelona, [which will lose] 384,000 passengers over March and April. The airport which will see the largest overall percentage decline is Tirana in Albania, where nearly 60% of the airport’s passengers travel to and from Italy.
“These scenarios just two of many we are looking at currently.”
Click to enlarge
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March 16, 2020 at 06:27PM
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