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DRIVING THE DAY
GOOD MORNING, and happy Wednesday. We should all begin to focus our attention on the end of this month and the fiscal stimulus/government funding mess that awaits Washington -- because it is massive, can easily go off the rails and is very far from being figured out.
THE OVERVIEW: As we’ve mentioned a few times, government funding runs dry Sept. 30. Because Congress is Congress, and the TRUMP White House is the TRUMP White House, Covid relief remains unfinished as well.
THESE TWO DISCUSSIONS -- government funding and Covid relief -- will be paired this month, and it seems almost inevitable that they get wrapped into one package, which should pass by the end of the month. Our confidence level is low that this will happen without major turbulence, and perhaps a government shutdown. In other words, this is real, so brace for impact.
A FEW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES:
1) WHEN SENATORS return next week, they are expected to vote on the GOP’s “skinny” (i.e. stripped-down) Covid relief bill -- they’re going to call it “targeted,” because some think skinny sounds bad. Everything, including timing, is subject to change, because this is a moving target. As of now, the measure does NOT include direct payment checks, but does include many of the other agreed-upon items like money for schools and unemployment benefits. Senate Republicans are close to garnering 51 votes for this bill, and it seems like the leadership is rowing toward a WEDNESDAY vote. Again -- neither timing nor the contents of the bill are set.
-- REMEMBER: This bill is not meant to become law, but rather to serve as a marker for where Senate Republicans stand when negotiations begin in earnest. Senate Republicans have yet to garner 51 votes for anything, so this is a step in the right direction for them.
2) WE KEEP HEARING that the House Problem Solvers Caucus is going to come out with a bill or a plan. Cool -- but you should ignore this unless they are all going to stick together and vote as a bloc. Power is in coalitions in the House -- not statements. If you don't stick together and vote together, you may as well tweet a statement and move on with your life.
3) PEOPLE SEEM TO BE PUTTING STOCK in Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN’S testimony Tuesday, and his promise that he was going to call Speaker NANCY PELOSI. Here’s what PELOSI had to say about that call: “Sadly, this phone call made clear that Democrats and the White House continue to have serious differences understanding the gravity of the situation that America’s working families are facing.” The full Pelosi statement on the 36-minute phone call
-- IN OTHER WORDS, PELOSI and the WHITE HOUSE are no closer to an agreement than they ever were.
SO … SHOULD WE START THINKING ABOUT A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN? Readers of this fine newsletter will know that we frequently tease the possibility of government shutdowns because they are real, and they happen far more than they probably should.
-- CONSIDER THIS: There are, at most, 11 days in session for the two sides to pass government funding, and solve the stimulus riddle that’s had PELOSI, MNUCHIN and White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS tied up for months. That’s not much time.
COULD TIME and a deadline force the two parties together? Maybe, but serious differences remain between PELOSI, Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and the WHITE HOUSE. For example, Dems want $900 billion in state and local aid, and Republicans want around $150 billion to $200 billion. They also are apart on school aid: Dems want something on the order of $400 billion, and Republicans are at $105 billion.
SOME PEOPLE ARE BETTING THAT HOUSE DEM MODERATES start to buckle. Maybe -- but we haven’t seen anything like that yet. Will vulnerable Senate Republicans? Again, it’s possible but we have no evidence of that happening at the moment.
NEXT WEEK is all about posturing. We should start to see actual movement and get a real sense of where things stand the week of Sept. 14. Again: brace for lots of turbulence here.
62 DAYS until Election Day.
NEW … POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL … MELANIA TOPS IVANKA … 62% of Republicans viewed first lady MELANIA TRUMP’S convention speech favorably, while 54% of Republicans viewed IVANKA TRUMP’S speech favorably. … Overall, 33% viewed MELANIA’S speech favorably, and just 26% viewed IVANKA’S speech favorably.
-- OVERALL, MELANIA’S fav/unfav is 43/43 and IVANKA’S is 34/49. Laura Barrón-López: “Trump attacks take a toll on Black Lives Matter support”
NEW … BIG GRINNELL NATIONAL POLL (Selzer and Company): JOE BIDEN 49, DONALD TRUMP 41 … THIS POLL was conducted Aug. 26-Aug. 30.
“PRESIDENT BIDEN” … TOP-ED: PHIL GRAMM and MIKE SOLON in the WSJ: “Prosperity Rides on a Republican Senate: A Democratic majority would be a rubber stamp for a President Biden’s ruinous economic agenda.”
THE ATHLETIC IS SKEPTICAL OF TRUMP’S BIG 10 MOVE -- “Why President Trump’s ‘surreal’ call likely won’t change the Big Ten’s course,” by Nicole Auerbach: “Multiple sources in the Big Ten said that there remain ‘many hoops to jump through’ in working toward eventually restarting fall sports following the league’s Aug. 11 postponement. One source characterized the idea of restarting ‘immediately’ as ‘a really big longshot.’ …
“The Big Ten is expected to lay out a series of requests for White House assistance in areas to be determined, a league source said. Those requests could center on areas whose inadequacy led to the postponement in the first place, such as rapid testing, contact tracing and medical equipment to help with cardiac testing.”
INCUMBENCY PREVAILS … STEPHANIE MURRAY in Boston: “Markey overcomes Kennedy challenge in Massachusetts”: “‘Tonight is more than just a celebration of a movement,’ [Sen. Ed] Markey said in his victory speech in Malden, Mass. ‘It is a reaffirmation of the need to have a movement, a progressive movement, of young people demanding radical change, demanding justice. A movement giving voice and power to young people when for far too long they were ignored.’
“Markey also said the intraparty battle was ‘fierce at times,’ though he praised Kennedy's commitment to the commonwealth. Kennedy shared a similar message during his concession speech after speaking with Markey.
“‘The senator is a good man. You have never heard me say otherwise,’ Kennedy said at his primary night event in Watertown, Mass. ‘It was difficult at times between us. Good elections often get heated. But I’m grateful for the debates, for his commitment to our commonwealth and for the energy and enthusiasm that he brought to this race.’ Another incumbent prevailed in a House district in Western Massachusetts, where House Ways and Means Committee Chair Richard Neal easily dispatched his young, progressive opponent, Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse. He led by 20 points when The Associated Press called the race.”
-- PELOSI and AOC split matches here. PELOSI endorsed KENNEDY and NEAL, and AOC endorsed MORSE and MARKEY.
WHOA … NYT’S SHANE GOLDMACHER: “Joseph R. Biden Jr. is expected to report a record-breaking haul of donations for August, raising more than $300 million between his campaign and his shared committees with the Democratic Party, according to two people familiar with the matter.
“The sum would shatter past monthly records as small donors have poured money into Mr. Biden’s coffers, especially since the selection of Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate, and big contributors, from Silicon Valley to Wall Street, have given checks that can be as large as $721,300.
“In a sign of the financial momentum behind Democrats, ActBlue, the main site that processes donations to the party, reported the second-biggest fund-raising day in its history on Monday, with more than $35 million donated. A majority of Mr. Biden’s August total came from online grass-roots donors, according to another person familiar with the figures.”
BIDEN HAS A NEW MINUTE-LONG SPOT condemning rioting. It uses clips from his Pittsburgh speech and imagery from riots. Watch the spot
A FEW REPUBLICANS PINGED US after TRUMP tweeted about longshot candidate KIMBERLY KLACIK, the Republican running in D+26 Baltimore (the district formerly held by the late ELIJAH CUMMINGS). Here’s what House GOP watchers said about that: Imagine if TRUMP tweeted about front-line Rs who could actually knock off Ds!
OK, THEN … WAPO: “U.S. says it won’t join WHO-linked effort to develop, distribute coronavirus vaccine,” by Emily Rauhala and Yasmeen Abutaleb: “The Trump administration said it will not join a global effort to develop, manufacture and equitably distribute a coronavirus vaccine, in part because the World Health Organization is involved, a decision that could shape the course of the pandemic and the country’s role in health diplomacy.
“More than 170 countries are in talks to participate in the Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access (Covax) Facility, which aims to speed vaccine development, secure doses for all countries and distribute them to the most high-risk segment of each population.”
“The plan, which is co-led by the WHO, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and Gavi, the vaccine alliance, was of interest to some members of the Trump administration and is backed by traditional U.S. allies, including Japan, Germany and the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union.”
ADVANCE FAILS …
-- WTMJ, the NBC affiliate in Milwaukee: “Kenosha business owner declines President Trump photo-op, former owner replaces him”: “A Kenosha business owner is accusing President Donald Trump of using his destroyed store for political gain.
“Tom Gram’s century-old camera shop burned to the ground a week ago during the unrest in Uptown Kenosha. Gram said he declined President Trump’s request to be a part of his tour of damage Tuesday in Kenosha. Instead, a former owner of the shop was invited and he praised the president’s efforts. …
“Gram said he got a call Monday from the White House asking if he’d join the president on a tour that would showcase his leveled business, but Gram immediately refused. ‘I think everything he does turns into a circus and I just didn’t want to be involved in it,’ Gram said. To Gram’s surprise, he watched on TV as the president showed up with the store’s former owner and President Trump made it seem like the store was still his.”
-- FOX NEWS: “Pelosi used shuttered San Francisco hair salon for blow-out, owner calls it ‘slap in the face,’” by Brooke Singman
ABC: “DHS withheld July intelligence bulletin calling out Russian attack on Biden’s mental health,” by Josh Margolin, Lucien Bruggeman, Will Steakin and Jonathan Karl: “In early July the Department of Homeland Security withheld publication of an intelligence bulletin warning law enforcement agencies of a Russian scheme to promote ‘allegations about the poor mental health’ of former Vice President Joe Biden, according to internal emails and a draft of the document obtained by ABC News.
“The draft bulletin, titled ‘Russia Likely to Denigrate Health of US Candidates to Influence 2020 Election,’ was submitted to the agency’s legislative and public affairs [office] for review on July 7. The analysis was not meant for public consumption, but it was set to be distributed to federal, state and local law enforcement partners two days later, on July 9, the emails show.
“Just one hour after its submission, however, a senior DHS official intervened. ‘Please hold on sending this one out until you have a chance to speak to [acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf],’ wrote DHS Chief of Staff John Gountanis, according to an email obtained by ABC News. That was nearly two months ago. But the bulletin was never circulated.”
THE JUICE -- GOP data firm Cygnal has acquired Harper Polling, the polling shop run by NRCC alum Brock McCleary. He’ll be a VP at Cygnal and open a Pennsylvania office with the Harper team. (h/t Morning Score)
NEW … CLF -- the House GOP super PAC -- knocks Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) in a new ad as being a phony, and attempts to tie her to PELOSI. 30-second spot
TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY: THE PRESIDENT will head to Andrews at 11:45 a.m. for his flight to Wilmington, N.C. At 1:55 p.m., he’ll get to Battleship, North Carolina, where he’ll speak about designating Wilmington an American World War II Heritage City. He will get back to the White House at 4:45 p.m.
BIDEN will receive an education briefing, and then he will speak about Covid-19’s impact on “students, educators and children” and his plan to reopen schools.
PLAYBOOK READS
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION … WHO KNEW?! … WAPO: “Numbers are running out for the 202 area code in D.C.,” by Emiliy Davies: “The next D.C. area code is expected to be announced by the end of the year, according to Beth Sprague, director of NANPA, before it is rolled out in stages in mid-2022. … As of Aug. 20, Sprague said there are only 23 ‘prefixes’ -- which are the first three numbers following the area code -- still ready for use.”
CORONAVIRUS RAGING -- “How a Bus Ride Turned Into a Coronavirus Superspreader Event,” by NYT’s Roni Caryn Rabin: “In late January, as the new coronavirus was beginning to spread from China’s Hubei Province, a group of lay Buddhists traveled by bus to a temple ceremony in the city of Ningbo — hundreds of miles from Wuhan, center of the epidemic.
“It was a sunny day with a gentle breeze, and the morning service was held al fresco, followed by a brief luncheon indoors. A passenger on one of the buses had recently dined with friends from Hubei. She apparently did not know she carried the coronavirus. Within days, 24 fellow passengers on her bus were also found to be infected.
“It did not matter how far a passenger sat from the infected individual on the bus, according to a study published in JAMA Internal Medicine on Tuesday. Even passengers in the very last row of the bus, seven rows behind the infected woman, caught the virus.” NYT
DEFENSE CONTRACTOR READING -- “China is ramping up nuclear and missile forces to rival U.S., Pentagon says,” by WaPo’s Paul Sonne: “China is building up its nuclear and missile forces and is mobilizing vast resources to rival the Pentagon’s, the Defense Department said in its annual report on Chinese military power, which concluded that the country’s armed forces in certain areas had eclipsed the U.S. military.
“The report, released Tuesday by the Pentagon, comes as the U.S. military shifts its focus from Middle East counterinsurgencies that have dominated its operations for two decades toward a possible future conflict with China and Russia, in what defense leaders have dubbed ‘an era of great power competition.’
“China’s armed forces, the Pentagon said, not only are acquiring sophisticated new technology and weaponry but also are overhauling their organizational structures, as China aims to complete a military modernization by 2035 and establish a ‘world-class military’ that can rival or exceed that of the United States by 2049.
“Beijing’s goal, the report says, is then to leverage its new military might to achieve its foreign-policy objectives in the Western Pacific and to assert itself globally.” WaPo … The report
VALLEY TALK -- “TikTok Deal Talks Are Snarled Over Fate of App’s Algorithms,” by WSJ’s Liza Lin, Aaron Tilley and Georgia Wells: “Deal talks for TikTok’s U.S. operations have hit a snag over the question of whether the app’s core algorithms can be included as part of a deal, according to people familiar with the matter.
“The algorithms, which determine the videos served to users and are seen as TikTok’s secret sauce, were considered part of the deal negotiations up until Friday, when the Chinese government issued new restrictions on the export of artificial-intelligence technology, according to people familiar with the matter.
“Now both sides are trying to figure out whether the order means the algorithms need Chinese government approval for transfer, and if so, whether Beijing would sign off. The complexity involved has reduced the chances that a deal could be completed soon.” WSJ
PLAYBOOKERS
Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].
SPOTTED at a Zoom party Tuesday night for David Rubenstein’s new book, “How to Lead” ($18.24 on Amazon), hosted by David Marchick with an interview by Ken Burns: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Madeleine Albright, Sylvia Burwell, Tom Nides, Josh Bolten, Bob Barnett, Steve Case, Bill Frist, Mike Mullen, Dina Powell McCormick, Indra Nooyi, Mike “Coach K” Krzyzewski, Mack McLarty, Nelson Cunningham, Jorge Guajardo, Virginia Boney, Ken Duberstein, John Allen, Richard Haass, Walter Isaacson, David Axelrod, Chris Ullman and Andrew Ross Sorkin.
TRANSITION -- Mustafa Jumale is joining Voice for Refuge Action Fund as political director. He previously was policy manager for Black Alliance for Immigration Justice, and is a Keith Ellison alum.
BIRTHWEEK (was Tuesday): Nathan Klein, IE director for America First Action
BIRTHDAYS OF THE DAY: Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.) is 68. What he’s reading: “For fun, I’m reading ‘One Second After’ by William Forstchen. I’m also reading ‘Rules for Radicals’ by Saul Alinsky. It’s been interesting to see parallels to some of what’s going on in our country today.” Playbook Q&A
-- Emily Porter, partner at the Nickles Group. How she thinks the Trump presidency is going: “The Republican convention was very compelling, and the president made a strong case for why he should be reelected. While obviously unconventional, he does what he says he’s going to do.” Playbook Q&A
BIRTHDAYS: Lisa Barclay, partner at Boies Schiller Flexner … James Rosen, national investigative reporter for Sinclair’s D.C. bureau … Jess Fassler … former Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) is 69 … former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) is 89 … former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) is 68 … J.P. Freire … Yahoo News’ Dan Klaidman is 56 … Zakiya Thomas … Taylor Hennings, Tim Kaine’s Virginia/Northeast finance director … Coleman Hutchins … Molly McUsic, president of the Wyss Foundation … Elizabeth Birch, VP of CBRE (h/t Teresa Vilmain) … Tom Manatos, VP of government relations at Spotify and founder of Tom Manatos Jobs … Kris Balderston (h/ts Jon Haber) … Bill Bode, senior policy adviser for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) … NPR’s Don Gonyea … Kevin Smith of the White House …
… Raney Aronson-Rath, executive producer of “Frontline” … Harvey Levin is 7-0 … Boeing’s Bryan Watt … Laurie McCord … Seth Gainer, legislative assistant for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) ... Peter Petrihos (h/t Tim Burger) … Will Attig, executive director of the Union Veterans Council (h/t Josh Cohen) ... Evan Viau of the House Energy and Commerce telecom subcommittee minority staff … Ethan Zorfas, VP at Axiom Strategies … POLITICO Europe’s Laura Greenhalgh … Joe Shonkwiler … NBC’s Xuan Thai … Czech PM Andrej Babiš is 66 … Evan Rosenfeld … Margot Edelman … Netflix’s Ferial Govashiri … Dylan Vorbach … Melissa Joseph Muntz … Andrew Shine … Michael Kolenc … Scott Petersen … Kim Bowman … Wayne Washington … Jennifer Hanley … Ian Kremer … Kai Bird … Seth Zweifler
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