Raleigh, N.C. — Hurricane Isaias is likely to hit Florida Saturday morning as a Category 1 storm before weakening and heading for the Carolinas.
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The 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hurricane Isaias has weakened just slightly with maximum sustained winds at 75 mph. Isaias' forecast track has shifted to the west, indicating the storm could hit Florida early Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.
In Hyde County, commissioners Friday morning ordered any visitors to the leave Ocracoke Island. A mandatory evacuation order for residents takes effect Saturday at 6 a.m.
According to WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth, the American and European models differ greatly when it comes to how the storm will impact North Carolina.
The American model, or the worst case scenario, shows Isaias making landfall along North Carolina's coast Monday. According to Wilmoth, that would mean 2 inches of rain and strong wind gusts up to 40 mph in parts of central North Carolina and more severe impacts at the coast, including storm surge, flooding and very heavy rain.
The European model, which shows Isaias staying over land once it hits Florida, would bring much milder impacts to the Carolinas.
"There are big model discrepancies," Wilmoth said. "The bottom line? North Carolina will have impacts from this storm sometime Monday afternoon, but inland impacts are almost impossible to know at this point."
Moderate to high rip current risk for NC coast
Much of the North Carolina coast is under a moderate to high rip current risk throughout the weekend, but other effects from Isaias won't be felt until Monday.
Isaias is expected to stay a Category 1 hurricane as it nears our coast Monday with winds between 75-80 mph.
There is a high threat for rip currents along the North Carolina from Wilmington to Ocracoke Island starting Friday. A moderate rip current threat will be in effect north of Ocracoke Island and south of Wilmington.
This weekend, the coast could experience a few afternoon storms. By Monday, tropical storm or hurricane conditions are more likely. Periods of heavy rain and weak tornadoes will be possible along the coast as Isaias rain bands move in.
Since parts of eastern North Carolina have had heavy rain over the last couple of weeks, trees are likely to come down, and power outages are possible.
The Triangle will mostly see scattered thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain. If Isaias tracks more to the east and stays offshore, those impacts will be less. If it tracks to the west, the Triangle will be more impacted.
Isaias impacting the Bahamas
On Thursday while still a tropical storm, Isaias knocked out power, toppled trees and caused widespread flooding and small landslides in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, where at least 35 people were rescued from floodwaters and one person remained missing. A hurricane warning was in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abaco Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahama and Bimini.
Isaias is the earliest "I-named storm" on record.
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Cat. 1 Hurricane Isaias expected to impact NC Monday - WRAL.com
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