Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will have more answers and more versatility at his disposal in 2020.
Now that free agency is done and the Bills have added some significant pieces to their arsenal in the NFL draft, here are some conclusions that can be made about how Daboll can use his new toys:
All in on 11 personnel.
The Bills used the three-receiver, one-back set (11 personnel) on 70% of their plays in 2019, which ranked seventh most in the NFL. The league average was 60%.
There can be no doubt that the best 11 players on the Bills’ offense includes receivers Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley. Expect the Bills to rank in the top 10 again in 11 personnel – and probably increase their rate a bit from 70%.
However, like everyone from the New England school of offense, Daboll likes to be able to do a little of everything. If the Bills are facing a team that’s soft in the front seven, Daboll will be happy to power up with two tight ends or two backs. Ditto if the Bills are on the road in a hostile environment and have big worries about pass protection. That happened in Pittsburgh last season, when the Bills' 11 personnel usage dropped to 50%.
Better answers for press coverage.
Both New England and Miami are press-man coverage teams and both now have an outstanding fleet of cornerbacks to execute the defense.
New England’s defensive backs shut down the Bills in the 16-10 game in Orchard Park last season. Josh Allen was just 13 of 28. The Pats kept forcing Allen to make the tough throws to the outside and down the field. Remember the over the shoulder strike Allen made to Dawson Knox in New England?
Diggs’ ability to get quick separation off the line of scrimmage against press corners is a game-changer for Daboll. Now there should be more openings underneath. Now John Brown often will see the second-best corner on the field.
Of course, this improvement depends on Allen taking another step forward in Year Three and improving his deep accuracy, to make defenses respect the long ball.
The Bills now have given Allen the means to improve that glaring weakness. Diggs tied for the NFL lead with eight catches of 40-plus yards last year. Brown, obviously, is a top deep threat. And draftee Gabriel Davis has downfield ability. He had nine catches on go routes and eight on post patterns last season.
Better matchups vs. smaller corners.
It often is wishful thinking to expect a lot from a rookie receiver picked in the fourth round. However, the Bills don’t need Davis, the Central Florida product, to play even a third of the snaps. And there are some reasons to think he can contribute as a rookie.
The 6-foot-2 Davis has quicker feet than most of the big wideouts in the 2020 draft, which helps him get good releases off the line of scrimmage.
That gives Daboll more opportunity than last year to try to take advantage of matchups against smaller cornerbacks. Diggs is an even 6 feet. In 2019, Isaiah McKenzie played 63% of the snaps in the second half of the season. McKenzie is 5-7 1/2.
“Just trying to give Brian as many variations, not to have all the same small guys, fast guys, big guys,” Bills General Manager Brandon Beane said of drafting both Davis and sixth-round pick Isaiah Hodgins. “I like that. This receiver draft, you know, it was true, we talked about it all spring. This was a deep class and I mean there were some really good receivers; small, big, fast, quick.”
New England plays 5-9 Jonathan Jones in the slot and 5-10 J.C. Jackson outside on third down. The Jets’ slot corner is 5-9 1/2 Brian Poole. Denver’s slot corner is 5-9 Bryce Callahan, and the Raiders play 5-8 Lamarcus Joyner in the slot. Granted, they’ll go against Beasley a bunch. But not all the time.
Davis’ big body gives Allen a better chance to hit quick slants against the right matchup. Davis also gives the Bills the chance to bring back-shoulder throws to the sideline back into the offense.
Recall that Allen threw a slew of back-shoulder fades to Kelvin Benjamin in 2018, and a remarkable number of them did not connect. Every pass to Benjamin was a 50-50 ball. Allen needs to improve on that pass. But Davis is quicker than Benjamin and should get a little more separation.
Better no huddle and more empty sets.
Daboll likes to run up tempo. The Bills ran no-huddle the second most in the NFL last season, behind only Arizona. But they weren’t great at it because the passing game was sub par. You need to convert third downs to stay on the field to get the no-huddle rolling. The Bills ranked 24th on third-down conversions last season. That rate must improve.
Similarly, the Bills should be better out of empty-backfield sets, which makes coverage and protection a little simpler for Allen. The Bills ran empty on 11% of snaps in 2019, according to Buffalo News charts. That was less than in the latter half of 2018. Again, it depends on the matchup. They may not run a ton of empty at San Francisco or at Denver, which have monster front fours.
But better receivers should make the empty sets better. Allen completed just 55% of his passes out of empty sets last year, according to News charts. That number must go up.
A very similar run scheme.
Third-round draft pick Zack Moss of Utah is an immediate fit for the Bills’ scheme. He’s perfect to run Daboll’s gap scheme behind pulling linemen, and he can run the inside zone or bounce wide. He ran split-zone runs at Utah, just like the Bills run, with the tight end pulling behind the line of scrimmage.
Moss makes the offense less predictable than last year with Frank Gore in the lineup. Defenses knew Gore rarely was bouncing it outside. Gore caught only 13 passes. With Moss and two tight ends in the game, defenses will have to be more respectful of the pass.
How about the jet-sweep action to help the run game? That’s not going anywhere. The Bills ran jet-sweep motion on 7% of their snaps last year, via News charts. Usually it was McKenzie. They can do that with Diggs or Brown in the game.
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May 04, 2020 at 05:00PM
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Bills' new toys should have big positive impact on Brian Daboll's schemes - Buffalo News
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