Experts are predicting an above-average hurricane season. How will that impact Dallas-Fort Worth? - The Dallas Morning News

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Experts predict above-average hurricane activity this year after a record-breaking season in 2020.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced its predictions earlier this month, saying that as many as 13 to 20 named storms could form in the Atlantic this hurricane season. Hurricane season begins Tuesday and runs through November. Six to 10 of those storms could become hurricanes and up to five could develop into major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher, the administration said.

In 2020, a record 30 named storms formed and 13 became hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center. Six developed into major hurricanes.

While experts say general predictions are mostly accurate, state and regional impacts are harder to predict. Here’s what you need to know.

What does this prediction mean for Dallas-Fort Worth?

It’s not possible to predict very far in advance where any of the storms will hit, so potential regional impacts are not known until storms form.

Long-term predictions should be taken “with a big grain of salt,” said Rick Mitchell, chief meteorologist at KXAS-TV (NBC5).

If a storm hits Texas and affects the Dallas-Fort Worth area, meteorologists would know about four to five days in advance at most, Mitchell said.

“You might have a few days’ notice that ‘Hey, this one looks like it might eventually affect the Texas coast’, and the moisture left over from it may impact North Texas,” he said. “It’s not weeks out or even a week. Usually we’ll have a few days’ notice … and even at that point, you don’t know how much of an impact, because it’s just hard to tell.”

If Texas is hit with severe storms, what could happen in North Texas?

Mitchell said an above-average prediction from NOAA doesn’t necessarily mean anything for the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

He said the most likely impact of severe hurricanes would be high rainfall.

“If, say, we had more than a usual number of storms in the Gulf of Mexico that impacted the Texas coast, that would then produce a higher chance of above-normal rainfall — that would be the main thing,” he said. “But outside of that, just because the hurricane season is expected to be above normal, it doesn’t necessarily translate to having a big impact on the weather.”

It’s possible tornadoes could form in North Texas if severe storms hit the state, though Mitchell said that’s not very likely.

“Land-falling tropical systems, say it comes to shore in Houston and it somehow finds its way north into North Texas, it’s not unusual for a system like that to produce tornadoes,” he said. “But that’s such a small percentage that that can happen. It’s more likely along the coast, and then as the storms weaken, they tend to lose that ability.”

Almost three dozen hurricanes and tropical storms have affected North Texas since 1871, according to the National Weather Service.

The most recent storm that came into the area was Tropical Storm Bill, which landed on Matagorda Island on June 16, 2015. Two days later, the storm moved north near the Interstate 35 corridor, causing major flooding in Wise, Montague and Parker counties, among other places in North Texas, according to the weather service.

In September 2010, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine brought up to 12 inches of rain in areas across North Texas, according to the weather service. The storm produced eight tornadoes and prompted water rescues and evacuations.

Three other storms have affected the region since 2000 — Hurricane Rita in 2005, Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008 and Hurricane Ike in 2008 — causing heavy rainfall and high-wind speeds, the weather service says.

Because impacts could potentially be serious and the storms will hit with relatively short notice, experts say everyone should make a plan for extreme weather, no matter where they live.

“You have to be on top of having a disaster plan similar that you would have along the coast,” said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. “What would happen to you if you’re told to evacuate, where would you go? What kind of supplies do you have if your power is out for a week?”

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