In any given week, Cornell students spend at least $4 million in Ithaca and Tompkins County on goods and services.
Over the course of the year, Cornell estimates its 21,000 students pump $221 million into the local economy, and a good share of that is concentrated in the City of Ithaca from late August to the end of May.
Now, with the spread of the coronavirus utmost in administrators minds, most of the college's students have been directed to remain home following spring break — two months before the scheduled end of the spring semester.
"We must do all we can to minimize future community spread," Cornell President Martha E. Pollack said in Tuesday's note to the community.
The university said it will move to virtual instruction after March 27. Students begin their spring break on March 28 and classes were scheduled to resume Monday, April 6. Instead, undergraduates and some professional degree students are being told to remain at home and complete the semester remotely.
Pollack said exemptions would be honored when essential.
Beyond the borders of the leafy Ivy League campus, however, there's serious worry about the tangible impact early campus dismissal will have on the Tompkins County economy.
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'Horrific economic impact'
"We need immediate and forceful federal action - we will see a horrific economic impact," Ithaca Mayor Svante Myrick said on Twitter. "Right now Ithaca has the strongest economy in NY state. Three months from now?"
The decision is not only a blow to the small businesses in Ithaca's Collegetown and the Commons, but to municipal finances, where sales tax revenue pays for essential city and county services.
"When you remove that many people from an economy it's going to have an impact," said Gary Ferguson, executive director of the Downtown Ithaca Alliance.
There is currently neither a vaccine nor an approved treatment for the new, or novel coronavirus. While younger people may experience the illness as a bad cold with a fever, the concern is that older people and those who have additional medical conditions will develop a more severe form of COVID-19.
As the disease spreads widely in the population, that could lead to a high number of patients requiring hospitalization for pneumonia or acute lung problems that require the use of a ventilator to breathe, as well as death. Data from China show that about 15 percent of people who contract the coronavirus infection develop more severe illness, requiring hospitalization.
Impact on Tompkins County, Ithaca taxes
In the first six months of 2019, sales tax produced $27.2 million in revenues for Tompkins County, up 5.4% from the previous year. In the City of Ithaca, sales tax produced $5.8 million, up 1.4% from 2018, according to a report from the New York State Comptroller. The sales tax rate in Tompkins County is 8%.
As students clear campus, those numbers will certainly take a hit.
In his 2020 budget message, Tompkins County Administrator Jason Molino projected a 4% growth in sales tax revenue. Without students contributing to overall sales, even his "conservative" estimate may be difficult to achieve because the extended break comes during a period of heavy guest spending.
No one can predict when Cornell will be back in session or how the college will deal with 2020 graduation, when the community on the eastern and southern end of Cayuga Lake is teeming with family and friends of graduates.
Taking the influx of visitors that trek to Ithaca for graduation out of the retail mix, the overall impact on business income, sales tax and room tax collections — a 10% surcharge on nightly rental rates that funds county tourism and arts — could be staggering.
Cornell also estimates visitors spend $75 million a year in the area, much of that spent during graduation and moving-in weekends.
"This could be lethal to many small businesses," Myrick said in a telephone interview Wednesday evening.
The potential blow to the Ithaca economy could reverse years of progress. Ithaca's overall employment picture has been humming along at a brisk pace since the 2008 recession, producing the best job growth numbers in upstate New York — up 9,600 jobs, 19% since the recession.
'Crossing our fingers'
"That's sort of like Christmas for many of our businesses," Ferguson said of Cornell graduation weekend, which coincides with Memorial Day weekend. "We are obviously monitoring and watching what Cornell is going to do (with graduation). We're crossing our fingers on that."
The 6,400-student Ithaca College campus remains in session, but announced Wednesday restrictions on large events. A college website devoted to the situation says "the college will continue to periodically communicate with our students and their families, faculty, and staff on this evolving issue."
"As COVID-19 continues to spread in the State of New York, it's imperative that we take precautionary measures to protect our communities, so I do understand why Cornell made this decision," said Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton, D-Ithaca. "However, there is no doubt that this decision will have a severe impact on the local economy. The loss of the student population during these critical months will affect businesses, hotels, and Airbnb's in Ithaca and the surrounding area."
Across the state, other colleges in the State University of New York system and Syracuse University are reverting to virtual campuses.
SUNY and CUNY campuses will shut down most in-person classes and move to online learning for the rest of the spring semester, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Wednesday.
The move, which takes effect March 19, will have a significant effect on the largest public college system in the nation as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases grew to 212 across New York, including 121 in Westchester County.
Students will be encouraged to remain at home for the rest of the spring semester, though accommodations will be made for students who must remain on campus for laboratory classes or those who have no other place to stay, according to Cuomo's office.
The schools will have the next week to tailor a plan for their individual campuses, which will address exactly how the new policy will be implemented.
Jeff Platsky covers transportation and the economy for the USA TODAY Network New York. He can be reached at JPLATSKY@Gannett.com and followed on Twitter: @JeffPlatsky
The USA TODAY New York Network contributed to this story.
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