WASHINGTON — It's been a long hard year for many Americans, from the arrival of COVID-19 and the economic pain it brought to a contentious presidential election and post-election period. But as COVID vaccination rates rise, key data points suggest something is lurking in the American electorate that we haven’t seen for a while: optimism.
American opinions about the direction of the country and the direction of the economy have improved dramatically in the last few months — and that shift could have a political impact in Washington.
This last week, Gallup released data showing that percentage of Americans who are satisfied with the direction of the country hit a nine-month high.
Cynics will rightly note that the number is still not stellar. No one comes home from school to brag to their parents about scoring 32 percent on a test. But it is the highest the figure has been since the pandemic began, tying the satisfied number from last May. And low satisfaction has become a hallmark of 21st century Americans. The number has been in the 30s or lower, often far lower, for most of the past decade.
The nation’s political tumult seems to have been a drag on the satisfaction score. Notably, the figure was rising last October, up to 28%, but the figure came crashing down in the post-election turmoil.
An 11 percent satisfaction number in January, just after the insurrection at the Capitol, was one of the lowest numbers on record. (The only lower figure, 7 percent, came in 2008 when the housing market was melting down.) The satisfaction score has improved more than 20 points since then, suggesting there is something to be said for calm and stability.
To be clear, there are still sharp partisan divides on that "satisfaction" question. In a late October Gallup survey, the "satisfaction" number was being driven entirely by Republicans. The most recent figures are being pushed by Democrats.
Back in October, 60 percent of Republicans were satisfied with the direction of the country and only 3 percent of Democrats agreed. Now 52 percent of Democrats are satisfied and only 7 percent of Republicans.
But the latest numbers reflect more than just a simple partisan flip-flop. The latest data also show a 9-point bump among independents, which suggests a somewhat broader-based upturn in opinion.
And beyond the simple and somewhat nebulous idea of "satisfaction," there are more positive feelings about the economy coming from Americans as well. The latest Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan finds Americans feeling better about the economy than they have since last March.
The index is calculated through a monthly survey of 500 or more Americans that asks 50 core questions. And that current figure, a score of 83, is still low historically speaking. The index was in the 90s for most of the last four years before COVID.
But the uptick is particularly noteworthy not only because it is high for the last year, but also because it comes with more Americans getting vaccinated. It suggests people believe things have gotten better and set to improve more.
And this week brought some evidence to back that sunnier view as the "initial unemployment claims" number dropped to a new post-pandemic low.
After peaking at 6.8 million the week of March 28 in 2020, the number had come down sharply and has been bouncing around in 725,000 to 780,000 range. But this week marked the first time the number dipped below 700,000, with the figure clocking in at 684,000.
This latest dip could end up being a blip, of course, if the numbers could climb again next week, but the overall trend has been good in recently. For the last few weeks, the number for initial claims has been at its lowest since October, before the COVID spike over the holidays.
Any of these numbers would be a good sign for the country, but taken together there is a larger trend in the data. People seem to be feeling better about where the country is headed, and the numbers seem to suggest there is some reason for that.
To be clear, there's still a long way to go to dig out from the COVID-19 pandemic. There are likely still hurdles to come, but the current and somewhat abrupt shift in mood may have bigger meaning in 2021.
For decades now, there has been a strong gravitational pull toward pessimism in American politics that's been hard to overcome. As a new administration and Congress set about to addressing a long list of challenges facing the country, a positive electorate could make the task a little easier.
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